Record Early Voting Turnout in 2024 Reflects Shifting Patterns in Battleground States

Republicans embrace early voting while Democrats see slight decline in mail-in ballots; nonpartisans play a critical role in close races

Nearly a third of Americans who voted in the 2020 election have already participated in the 2024 cycle, marking a significant early turnout. According to the University of Florida Election Lab, by 9 p.m. EDT on October 28, roughly 47.5 million Americans had cast their ballots, with approximately 24.24 million voting in person and more than 23.38 million opting to mail in their ballots. This level of early participation reflects ongoing shifts in voter behavior across party lines, particularly in key battleground states, as election administrators, campaigns, and the public navigate increasing interest in early and mail-in voting options.

The launch of early voting this past weekend in Florida, New Jersey, New York, and, for the first time, Michigan, has expanded the number of states where in-person voting is already available. Early voting began in many states as far back as late September, and today, voters in 45 states can cast their ballots in person ahead of Election Day on November 5. Oklahoma and Kentucky will follow shortly, beginning early voting windows on October 30 and 31, respectively. Several states, including Louisiana, Maine, Tennessee, and Maryland, will end their early voting periods by the end of October. However, not all states provide early in-person voting. Alabama, Mississippi, and New Hampshire have chosen to forgo this option, instead offering limited absentee voting under specific conditions.

As of late October, the turnout figures reveal some notable trends, particularly among Republicans. Since early voting became more prominent, Democrats have typically cast the most early and mail-in ballots, while Republicans tended to vote in person closer to or on Election Day. However, in 2024, Republicans have shown a strong in-person presence during the early voting period in response to calls from party leaders to embrace early voting options. This shift may be partially due to messaging from prominent Republicans, including former President Donald Trump, who, after expressing skepticism about early voting in 2020, has encouraged GOP supporters to participate early this year. Conversely, while Democrats continue to dominate mail-in voting, their numbers have not yet matched those of 2020.

This trend appears particularly relevant in states that are expected to play critical roles in determining the outcome of the presidential race between former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris. Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada—all considered pivotal battlegrounds—are experiencing record early voting rates or shifts in the patterns of voter turnout by party affiliation. For example, in Arizona, over 1.4 million early ballots had been received by October 27, including more than 588,000 from registered Republicans and 485,000 from Democrats, along with a substantial number from nonpartisan voters. Nonpartisan turnout may be significant here, as these voters accounted for more than 326,000 early ballots, a factor that could shape results in a state where Biden narrowly defeated Trump by fewer than 13,000 votes in 2020.

In Georgia, enthusiasm for early voting has continued to grow. On the first day of early voting, October 15, an unprecedented 328,000 people cast their ballots, contributing to a total early voter turnout of over 3 million by October 28. Georgia does not register voters by party affiliation, but the 2024 early voting figures are already outpacing those of 2020, a notable statistic for a state where Biden’s margin of victory was just 0.23%, or about 11,780 votes.

North Carolina has also reported strong early voter participation. A record 353,000 voters turned out on the first day of early voting, October 17, and by October 27, over 2.82 million voters—roughly 36% of the state’s registered voter base—had cast their ballots. Republicans made up 33.3% of these early voters, slightly edging out Democrats by around 16,200 votes. Nonpartisan voters, who comprised 920,386 early ballots, are another key demographic. In the past, Trump won North Carolina in both 2016 and 2020, albeit with a smaller margin in his second bid, securing the state by just 1.3% in 2020.

In Pennsylvania, where early voting by mail has been in place for several election cycles, the preference for mail-in voting among Democrats remains. As of October 28, Democrats had cast more than 823,000 of the 1.41 million mail-in ballots received, or about 58% of the total. Republicans, however, had returned nearly 444,000 ballots, accounting for nearly 31.5% of mail-in votes, reflecting an increase from the 23% Republican mail-in participation in the 2020 election. Pennsylvania’s Election Lab data suggests that Republicans may be on track to surpass their 2020 mail-in voting rates by Election Day.

In Michigan, a battleground state where early in-person voting became available for the first time this year, over 1.5 million of the 2.35 million requested ballots had already been returned by October 28. The volume of early participation reflects significant interest in Michigan’s elections, particularly among voters seeking to avoid potentially long wait times on Election Day.

Wisconsin, another key state without party-affiliated voter registration, has reported high early voting numbers as well, with nearly 860,000 ballots cast since the start of early voting on October 22. Of the 1 million mail-in ballots requested, 446,140 had been returned by October 28, while 412,022 people voted in person. Wisconsin’s electoral history underscores the importance of early participation: Biden won the state in 2020 by only 0.63 percentage points, or nearly 21,000 votes.

In Nevada, a shift in voting patterns is also apparent, with Republicans leading in early in-person votes. As of October 28, Nevada’s Election Lab data showed that 255,805 Republicans had cast ballots, compared to 223,729 Democrats. Nonpartisans cast an additional 164,519 ballots, and Republicans maintained a considerable advantage in early in-person voting, accounting for nearly 50% of all early in-person votes compared to the Democrats’ 27%. However, Democrats lead in mail-in ballots, with 141,674 ballots returned compared to 106,330 from Republicans. Nevada automatically mails ballots to all registered voters, unless they choose to opt out, and offers same-day registration on Election Day, meaning total turnout could shift considerably in the final days before the election.

With early voting options widely available, 2024’s voting landscape illustrates changing voter preferences and reflects both local and national political dynamics. Republican turnout has increased significantly in the early stages of the election, a reversal of previous years’ trends, while Democratic participation in mail-in voting has seen a slight decline compared to 2020 levels. Voter behavior in battleground states is particularly noteworthy, as the participation of both partisan and nonpartisan voters is expected to play a decisive role in closely contested areas.

As the general election nears, it remains to be seen how these early trends will influence final voter turnout. With the potential for close margins in battleground states, political strategists and election officials alike are monitoring these early voting patterns as an indicator of how November 5 may unfold. The overall participation thus far underscores the growing role that early voting plays in U.S. elections and suggests that the 2024 election may continue to reshape traditional voting behaviors across the country.

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